Argentina: Barley crop forecast further reduced by 0.5 mln tonnes on unfavourable weather

Significant rain provided critical relief to the drought conditions across Buenos Aires Province, however, the impact to barley yields plus a hard frost in early November are forcing a further downgrade in our production estimate by 0.5 mln tonnes to 4.4 mln, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

The extreme drought has provided feedback on barley variety performance, with Andreia performing relatively well, and Overture still showing yield and disease benefits. The 2022 outcome could lead to a slight shift in variety choices in 2023, with Andreia possibly slowing its decline in planted area, the analysts said.

Farmers remain unwilling sellers of barley and with a recent frost, this situation is increasing the farmers’ doubt about the final crop output.

Exporters have already booked considerable export licences (about 1 mln tonnes) as reported previously and trading further volumes into export markets will be very difficult until harvest results are known.

From 4.4 mln tonnes production, there is domestic demand for 1.1 mln tonnes, and 1 mln already traded as FAQ, leaving a residual 2.3 mln for any remaining open barley demand. In the 12 months through July 2022, China alone imported 2.9 mln tonnes of Argentina barley, a number which is not possible to repeat in crop 2022.

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